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2004
Florida Hurricane paths plotted on the 2000 election
results map by county--God must be pissed off.
(funny, but rather ironic)
Declan McCollough's images of the Inauguration protest
Washington Post Images
George Dubyah
Bush Links
With the 2004 election just around the corner,
Jeb Bush is testing out his trick ballot machines for
Democratic neighborhoods, and the Federal
Elections Commission is designing a plan for election
"reform" that will even more strongly favor
Republican candidates. If we're lucky, we'll
get to see Florida explode in a riot.
Written before and during the election
recount. Links checked Sept 28th 2003
It's pretty hard to convert something like election statistics
into something that you can hum, really. Frank
Zappa, 1992 interview
Gore won the popular vote by almost 300,000 votes.
Bush needed 24 out of Florida’s 25 electoral votes to win,
whereas Gore needed only 3. Gore won in almost
every major city in America, and in most of the states with
high population density. Interestingly, if the two
free electoral votes to each state were removed so that
Washington DC and North Dakota had only one vote based on
congressional seats, Gore would have won the electoral vote
as well. The media continues to demonstrate profound
bias toward the Republicans and the Supreme Court.
The Republicans prove yet again that their
personalities only have one mode: asshole. Meanwhile,
the Democrats are praying that Al Gore will drop-kick the
impish brat into the Whitehouse in order to avoid the hassles
of being the winner in this tainted election. We certainly
haven't seen anything from the Democrats resembling the
ire and vitriol of the supremely creepy James Baker and
the rest of the Republican
thugs.
And the recount…bizarre. Just plain bizarre. The states’
rights Republicans got enormous mileage out of comparing
the process to reading tea leaves. George Bush
is even being protected from having to explain how three
years ago he passed a
law preferring manual recounts in elections like this
in Texas, while he simultaneously claims that manual
recounts are unfair--that there is something different
about a manual recount in the state that his brother governs.
We learned a few important things from this election:
- The media definitely takes sides now more than ever
in political conflicts, and that side is the one that
most directly benefits corporate interests.
- The media should not be able to call election outcomes
before they have been legally certified, and Americans
are just going to have to learn to wait to find out.
Since it is now evident that balloting is less reliable
than statistical sampling, exit polls should be used
as an external assessment of the accuracy of the actual
voting process, rather than as a way for various media
corporations to try to call the election first.
- Lastly, there is a profound cultural divide in America.
The borders of this division are complex. They
are geographical in that support for Bush seems to be
strongest south of the Mason-Dixon Line, and in the more
landlocked states. The border also shows in terms
of urban areas in opposition to rural areas. Race
and class represent another interesting border.
For example, Washington DC's residents, largely African
American poor, minor government employees and college
students, opted for Gore by a margin of almost ten to
one. Guns and abortions set up more borders between
us. Perhaps the most important distinction between
the two parties is one of attitude. Notice which
party has the most nasty, aggressive, threats, rioting,
unpleasant supporters and rhetoric. In this case,
it's probably because Gore actually won, and they're on
the defensive--refusing to admit that their candidate
lost. There are no corresponding death threats
or angry mobs among the supporters of Gore.
We have been rather interested in the demographics of
this election. The following tables should illustrate
the important details of this election. Note: I
decided to focus on the number of people who voted for
Bush, and the point spread between him and Gore.
The reason for this focus will probably become clear as
you read.
KEY: Population, Number
of votes cast in 2000 election, Percentage of total
population who voted for Bush, Number of Bush voters,
Percentage of total population that voted for Bush.
Ranked by point spread.
Bushy States (more than 10 pt win)
|
Idaho (41 pts)
pop 1,251,700
488,472 voters (39% of the state voted) 336,299
Bush (26.9%) |
Wyoming (41 pts)
Remember Matthew
Shepard? pop 479,602 &
213,426 voters (44.5%) 147,674 Bush (30.7%) |
Utah (41 pts)
pop 2,129,836 & 765,836 voters
(36%) 512,161 Bush (24%) |
Alaska (31 pts)
pop 619,500 & 228314 voters (36.9%) 134,829
Bush (21.8%) |
| Nebraska (30
pts) pop 1,666,028 & 653,732
voters (39.2%) 408,719 Bush (24%) |
North Dakota
(28 pts) pop 633,666 & 289,649
voters (45.7%) Bush 175,547 (27.7%) |
Montana
(24 pts) pop 882,779 & 410,798
voters (46.5%) 239,755 Bush (27.1%) |
Oklahoma (22
pts) pop 3,358,044 & 1,234,277
voters (36.8%) 744,335 Bush
(22.1%) |
| South Dakota
(22 pts) pop 733,133 & 316,023
voters (43.1%) 190,515 Bush
(26%) |
Kansas (21 pts)
pop 2,654,052 & 1,055,212
voters (39.8%) 614,419 Bush
(23.2%) |
Texas (21 pts)
pop 20,044,141 & 6,399,476 voters
(31.9% lowest voter ratio in this group) 3,796,850
Bush (18.9%) |
Indiana (16 pts)
pop 5,942,901 & 2,153,759 voters
(36.2%) 1,231,713 Bush (20.7%) |
| Mississippi (15
pts) pop 2,768,619 & 963,689
voters (34.8%) 548,634 Bush
(19.8%) |
South Carolina
(15 pts) pop 3,885,736 &
1,415,430 voters (36.4%) 804,826
Bush (20.8%) |
Alabama (15 pts)
pop 4,369,862 1,660,440 voters (38% voted) 940,153
Bush 21.5% |
Kentucky (14
pts) pop 3,960,825 & 1,540,667
voters (38.9%) 869,946 Bush
(22%) |
| |
North Carolina
(13 pts) pop 7,650,789 &
2,865,214 voters (37.4%) 1,607,238
Bush (21%) |
Georgia (12 pts)
pop 7,788,240 & 2,552,248 voters
(32.8%) 1,404,058 Bush (18%
lowest in this group) |
|
| Bush
received 14,707,671 votes in these states.
A total of 11,098,423 losing votes for Gore were
cast. This means that as a total, in
these strong Bush states, Gore still received slightly
more than 3 votes for every 4 votes that Bush received.
Click here to view our black
list for liberal tourists. |
States where Bush won by less than 10 pts
Total population in all Bushy
states: 136,054,424 |
| Colorado (9 pts)
pop 4,056,133 & 1,740,536 voters
(42.9%) 883,858 Bush (21.79%) |
Louisiana (8
pts) pop 4,372,035 & 1,759,809
voters (40.3%) 924,670 Bush
(21.1%) |
Virginia (7 pts)
pop 6,872,912 & 2,725,179 (39.7%)
1,426,951 Bush (20.8%) |
West Virginia
(6 pts) pop 1,806,928 & 636,617
voters (35% Low!) 329,708
Bush (18.25%) |
| Arizona (6 pts)
pop 4,778,332 & 1,382,887 voters
(28.9% Low!!) 701,647 Bush
(14.68% incredibly low) |
Arkansas (6 pts)
pop 2,551,373 & 925,148 voters
(36.26% Low) 469,918 Bush
(18.42%) |
Ohio (4 pts)
pop 11,256,654 & 4,569,658 voters
(40.6%) 2,294,049 Bush (20.38%) |
Missouri (4 pts)
pop 5,468,338 & 2,359,142 voters (43.1%)
1,189,521 Bush (21.8%) |
| Tennessee (3
pts) pop 5,483,535 & 2,064,135
voters (37.6%) 1,056,480 Bush
(19.27%) |
Nevada (3 pts)
pop 1,809,253 & 608,899 voters
(33.7% Low!!) 301,539 Bush
(16.67%) |
New Hampshire
(1 pt) pop 1,201,134 & 566,776
voters (47.2 high) 273,135 Bush (22.74%) |
Florida
(<1 pt) Still
uncalled pop 15111244 &
5,958,811 voters (39.4%) 2,910,078
Bush (19.26%) |
| Assuming
that Bush wins Florida, he received 11,572,033 votes
in these states, bringing his total votes in the
states he won to 26,279,704. A total of 10,631,968
losing votes for Gore were cast in these close states.
This means that Gore received slightly more than
9 votes for every 10 Bush votes in this area. That
brings the average to almost 8.3 Gore votes for
every 10 Bush votes in ALL the states that Bush
won. |
I continue with the process
of showing the number of Bush votes rather than Gore votes
because the purpose of the charts is to show how much
influence Bush has throughout the USA. Gore's support
is indicated by the point spread, and the following states
are ranked by that support.
Gorey States
136,636,389 inhabitants |
| Washington DC
(77 pts) pop 519,000 & 189,590
voters (36.5%) 17,020 Bush (3.28%) |
Rhode Island
(29 pts) pop 990,819 & 414,562
voters (41.84%) 132,535 Bush
(13.38%) |
Massachusetts
(27 pts) pop 6,175,169 &
2,690,307 voters (43.6%) 876,106
Bush (14.2%) |
New York (25
pts) pop 18,196,601 & 6,226,117
voters (34%) 2,218,620 Bush (12.2%) |
| Hawaii (18 pts)
pop 1,185,497 & 367,799 voters
(31.02%) 137,785 Bush (11.56%) |
Connecticut (17
pts) pop 3,282,031&
1,410,696 voters (42.9%) 544,704 Bush (16.6% he
won in Nevada with this percentage of support) |
Maryland (17
pts) pop 5,171,634 & 1,925,256
voters (37.2%) 770,911 Bush
(14.9% --higher than his winning score in Arizona) |
New Jersey (15
pts) pop 8,143,412 & 3,086,619
voters (38%) 1,247,791 Bush
(15.3% --higher than his winning score in Texas) |
| Delaware (13
pts) pop 753,538 & 327,870
voters (43.5%) 137,081 Bush (18.2%) |
Illinois (12
pts) pop 12,128,370 & 4,720,404
voters (38.9%) 2,012,154 Bush
(16.6%) |
California (12
pts) pop 33,145,121 & 9,786,258
voters (29.53% LOW!) 4,054,756
Bush (12.23%) |
Vermont (10 pts)
pop 593,740 & 290,559 voters (48.9%) 119,273
Bush (20.1%) |
| Maine (5 pts)
pop 1,253,040 & 645,305 (51.5%)
283,988 Bush (22.7%) |
Washington (5
pts) pop 5,756,361 & 1,854,734
voters (32.2%) 826,863
Bush (14.36%) |
Pennsylvania
(4 pts) pop 11,994,016 &
4,875,969 voters (40.65%) 2,264,309
Bush (14.88%) |
Michigan (3 pts)
pop 9,863,775 & 4,176,672 voters (42.3%) 1,936,288
Bush (19.6%) |
| Minnesota 2 pts)
pop 4,775,508 & 2,438,080
voters (51%) 1,110,192
Bush (23.2%) |
Iowa (1 pt)
pop 2,869,413 & 1,333,442 voters
(46.5%) 628,716 Bush (21.9%) |
Wisconsin (<1
pt) pop 5,250,446 &
2,591,679 voters (49.4%) 1,235,991
Bush (23.5%) |
|
| |
New Mexico 0.05 pts pop
1,739,844 & 597,109 voters (34.3%) 285,798
Bush (16.48%) |
Oregon
0.5 pts pop 3,316,154
& 1,490,946 voters (44.96%) 696,111
Bush (20.99) |
|
| Gore
received 27,617,088 votes in the states that he
won. That means that in comparing the winning votes
in each state and ignoring losing votes, we find
that Gore earned 1,337,384 votes more than Bush
in the states that he won than did Bush in the states
that he won. Gore also won the
overall popular vote by a narrower margin of 222,880
votes. 21,814,696 losing votes for Bush were
cast, meaning that there were just under 8 Bush
votes for every 10 Gore votes in all these Gore
states. That means that Bush lost to Gore
in the Gore states by over 21.01% and Gore lost
to Bush by 17.31% in the Bush states. This
interesting statistic produces what I will call
a 3.7% dislike factor against Bush. |
Any way you look at this election, it is very difficult
to understand how Bush deserves to win, except for the
archaic technicality of the winner-take-all Electoral
College. For instance, if we take the raw populations
of the Bushy States and compare it to the raw population
of the Gorey States, we see that Bush has 581,965 less
people constituting his electoral victory. In terms
of the popular vote, he has 222,880 fewer votes than Gore.
Naturally, the states most identified with the Confederate
flag demonstrated the strongest support for Bush.
In the states known for "wide open spaces" we
also find very strong support for Bush. It
is no small coincidence that these are also the states
most known for racial violence, gay bashing and resistance
to Hate Crimes legislation.
New England, the Great Lakes states, the Mississippi
River and the West Coast showed the strongest support
for Gore. In New York, Gore won even more strongly
than Hillary Clinton, which I think is rather interesting.
States where Bush won against a strong showing by Gore
include: Nevada, Arizona, Tennessee, Florida, and even
Louisiana. I hope that we will soon find more
informative analyses of this election in terms of geography,
demographics, and local corporate interests.
Besides proving to us that Bush lost in Florida, exit
polls indicated that college educated voters favored Bush
by 49% to 47%. Sandy and I found that amazing.
It broke down into a vastly stronger support for Gore
among those without a High School diploma and an 8 pt
lead for those with graduate degrees. I guess that
means that a BA degree doesn't teach students how to recognize
a viable president. Race was the most dramatic factor--only
9% of African American voters chose Bush, while 35% of
Hispanics decided that they liked this elitist loser enough
to vote for him. Protestants preferred Bush. Only
25% of gays and lesbians supported Bush. The heady
aroma of tax cuts covers the stench of Christian intolerance
for those wealthier gays. Catholics and Jews preferred
Gore. However, when you divide the religions by
race too, white Catholics and Protestants were dramatically
more supportive of Bush.
Support for Bush was also clearly connected to income.
Oddly, the classes appear to alternate--working class
supported Gore, middle class was nearly even, upper middle
class supported Bush, and the upper class supported Gore.
(interesting, eh?) Unmarried voters preferred Gore,
married voters preferred Bush. Bush also did better
among those with children under 18, while Gore did better
with people who have no offspring.
One of the oddest statistics I saw was that Bush got
the most support (54% to 40%) among those who thought
that foreign affairs was the most important issue in the
election. They must be assuming that Cheney won't
flat line on his next trip to the ER. Obviously,
Bush did best among those who thought taxes were the number
one issue. One really odd statistic: among
those who think that George Bush's position is too liberal,
Al Gore had a dramatically stronger support (81% to 15%).
Finally, among those who had reservations about the vote
they had cast, 51% had voted for Bush, 46% for Gore.
Among those who did not have reservations about their
vote, 50% voted for Gore and 47% for Bush. The percentages
were almost a perfect reversal.
All statistics based on data provided at CNN.com and
the U.S. Census Bureau estimates for population in July
1999.
One thing is for certain: whoever "wins" election
2000 will be sucked into a wretched vortex of scandals.
The Bush family will be haunted by Dubyah's youth of partying,
insider trading and social promotion, not to mention charges
of election fraud. Gore will probably be haunted
by similar charges of election fraud as well as the continuing
saga of his fund raising, which is quite simply hypocritical
coming from the man who basically bought this election
and used his money to smear his Republican competitors
into the dirt. (And he used Texas taxpayer money
he got when they bought his Rangers a new stadium, which
he sold!) Whatever is the case, it looks likely
that we will follow up a 60 million dollar witch-hunt
against the Clintons, and a 3 billion dollar election
with another four years of outrageously expensive hearings
that will give the legislature an excuse for not doing
anything meaningful. All this will happen at the
taxpayers' expense and in the name of "bipartisanship."
Meanwhile the alleged fraud may just be a red herring. The
Hatfields and the McCoys will continue their internecine
warfare. Lucky for us Dubyah will be spending more
time on the Ranch with his Sony Playstation 2 than he
will working. It will be very difficult for Americans
to adjust to the difference between the hardworking and
every-present Clintons, and the smirky non-chalance of
the absentee dictator/executioner.
Whether or not there was intentional election fraud to
an extent that the outcome of the election was changed
will probably never be known. It makes sense to
me that for future elections we should admit that we are
a “Banana Republic”, and invite election observers from
Cuba, El Salvador, Serbia, and much of Africa to make
sure that our democratic process is fair and untainted.
It also makes sense that electoral votes should not be
awarded until all the ballots are actually counted in
that state, and the winner should not be announced until
ALL the electoral votes have been cast. Our information
society impatience runs contrary to the realities of getting
a total and accurate picture of public opinion on one
day of the year.
And About Ralph Nader
Sandy and I are "liberal-to-left" with tendencies
toward socialist ideas in some areas, and libertarian
ideas in others. We like the positions of parties
like the Green Party, the Socialist Party and the Natural
Law Party. We have been extremely disillusioned
by the Democratic party's move toward the Republican platform.
We were also unimpressed by Nader's inconsistent remarks
and actions. Ralph is a Wall Street millionaire
who bases his political agenda on attacking corporations
without any apparent awareness of his own portfolio.
This duplicity is something of a warning sign to us. Also,
the extremely minor role that Winona LaDuke played, as
well as Nader's comparative lack of interest in women's
issues in the campaign led us to conclude that Ralph did
not make a compelling case to America and to women that
LaDuke was a full partner and capable of taking over the
presidency if Ralph died.
Instead, we got the distinct impression that the election
was really an ego show for Ralph at the expense of Winona,
who was almost hidden from the public eye. In other
words, his running mate looked like a politically correct
act of tokenism. Winona LaDuke might be a splendid
person, and might indeed have great promise as a politician.
She is a valuable activist with worthy opinions.
Ralph failed miserably to convince us that she was fit
to be second in line for the presidency. (We ended
up with the opposite scenario--a more capable, but unhealthy
vice president who must have gotten himself into office
by dragging along the dyslexic party boy.) It is
our opinion that this implicit, unspoken sexism, combined
with the fear of Bush actually winning explain the low
scores for Nader.
We're waiting for a better candidate for the Green Party--like
a woman. While Nader brought up wonderful issues
in the election, it was never clear to us that he could
get anything done in that regard. Nor was it clear
that he had an understanding of how to implement effective
changes to correct the corporate abuses he decried.
In short, Ralph came across to Sandy and me as an anti-capitalist
capitalist with a tendency toward misogyny and no clear
plan for making the world better other than being a loudmouth
antagonist. We don't need that. I'd rather
vote Socialist. Nader is better off where he is--a
consumer advocate and political trouble-maker. However,
it certainly would have been nice to see him in the debates.
Perhaps some meaningful issues would have been discussed
by the lame candidates.
It is really shocking that the voices of the extreme
left and extreme right are kept out of the debate.
These true extremes would demonstrate the sinister nature
of dominant political and economic assumptions that are
hidden from us by having the pseudodebates between uninspired
centrists. America stands to learn a great
deal if these voices were fully heard face-to-face with
the chicken shit centrist candidates.
Presidential Appointee George Dubyah Bush will attempt to
do everything he can to bring a return to the Trickle Down
Economics of Reagan, which Dubyah's own father called "Voodoo
Economics." George Dubyah Bush is undoubtedly
the least capable man to win the presidency of this country.
Perhaps he is the dumbest man to lead any country in the
world. Perhaps this would be a worthy endeavor for
the next four years--trying to find a less intelligent,
less literate, less cultured leader of any country. That
would be a good idea for a web site: World Leaders
Who Are Dumber than George. It might just be an
empty page.
Whatever we say about his academics and explicit anti-intellectualism,
he has shown ability to learn from his mistakes--especially
the ones he made between January 1, 2000 and November
3, 2001. We'll give him high marks for being the
most cognitively improved candidate from beginning of
the race to the end. Compare his bumbling performances
from the summer to the carefully controlled recitations
that characterized his third debate. It was an inspiring
example of the power of high teacher-to-student ratios.
A score of handlers and tutors helped one student who
was a victim of the soft discrimination of social promotion
in Harvard and Yale to learn more in these last four months
than he learned during his entire Ivy League college education.
You have to give him credit for that, even if he still
can't think on his own feet.
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